Au classement mondial des 1.000 banques les plus solides, JPMorgan se hisse à la première place, alors qu'elle n'était que quatrième l'année précédente. Le palmarès est établi en fonction des fonds propres mesuré selon le ratio Tier One.
Bank of America est deuxième et Citigroup troisième devant RBS, en dépit des difficultés rencontrées l'an dernier par ces établissements.
The Congressional Oversight Panel June Oversight Report, “Stress Testing and Shoring Up Bank Capital,” examines the recent stress tests conducted on America’s 19 largest bank holding companies (BHCs) ... The Panel’s report examines how effectively Treasury and the Federal Reserve conducted the stress tests, specifically reviewing the government’s economic assumptions, their methods of calculating bank capitalization, their release of information to the public, and whether the stress tests should be repeated in the future.Se reporter surtout au rapport de Talley et Walden, les experts de Berkeley chargés de l'évaluation technique, inclus en annexe.
The equity bull-run looks overdone: The S&P 500 is priced for around $75 of operating EPS, something I don't see occurring before 2012 (probably won't get the number above $43 per share for this year). This rally has all been multiple expansion — from 15x on trailing EPS at the low to around 23x now. The market is NOT cheap.
Bond selloff overdone too, notwithstanding the rush of supply (most of the Treasury auctions have actually gone pretty well, so this can't be all about supply): Through a good part of the Treasury yield run-up, private sector rates were unaffected, but now we have the 30-year mortgage rate approaching 5.5% and mortgage refinancing activity has plunged about 60% in the last two months. Mortgage applications for new home purchases collapsed at a 20% annual rate in May too. The futures market is priced for three Fed tightenings; however, historically, the Fed does not tighten and bond yields do not bottom until after the unemployment rate peaks.
this bailout is not really a defense of the global financial system, as much as it is a defense of bank bondholders against any loss whatsoever, quickly orchestrated and sold to a confused public as the only option, when it is nothing of the sort.
it is literally the most important fiscal and bureaucratic event that we are likely to observe in our lifetimes, and is very possibly the precursor to enormous future economic difficulties. You simply cannot have an economy lend out trillions of dollars in bad debt, and then make the lenders whole with public funds (while still facing a massive second wave of probable mortgage defaults) without destructive repercussions. There is very little chance, in my view, that the current downturn is over. We have enjoyed a nice reprieve – if over a trillion dollars in redistribution could not accomplish even a reprieve, it would be a surprise. It's clear that investors are hopeful that we can simply return to rich valuations, debt-financed economic expansion, and abnormal profit margins based on excessive leverage. From my perspective, this hope is as thin as those that we observed at the peak of the internet bubble, the housing bubble, and the profit margin peak of 2007.
